AIAE and Predicted SPX 10-Year Total Returns (Annualised)

Average Investor Allocation to Equities vs. Predicted Subsequent 10yr S&P 500 Return

AIAE (left axis)

Predicted 10yr SPX Return (right axis)

Recession periods

Loading data from FRED...

Based on research by Jesse Livermore (2013) & Raymond Micaletti (2021). Data from FRED. AIAE = Corporate Equities / (Corporate Equities + Total Debt Securities). Predicted return formula: 0.366 - 0.775 × AIAE.